Examining the Operational Aspect of Pedestrian Evacuation Modelling; A case study of Ras-Baalbek flash floods–Lebanon.

Abstract

A number of evacuation models exist in literature, but investigations of their operational aspects and efficient implementation are rare. The purpose of this paper is to critically assess the operational aspect of pedestrian evacuation models for flash floods mitigation. Through a detailed real-life case study in Ras-Baalbek village-Lebanon, the efficiency of evacuation models when it comes to saving lives was examined. Potential evacuation times were established using an anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) approach combined with an exploratory geospatial analysis. The next step was a field verification of the obtained results and accordingly, a detailed evacuation plan that would allow evacuees for a quick departure before flash floods arrival was established. Based on the modeling results, evacuation signs were proposed to be installed on roads along with building vertical-evacuation structures to enhance the evacuation time. The obtained evacuation-modeling outcomes showcased to have multiple operational implications: flood risk outreach, educating and training (preparedness and response), reducing risk and casualties, long-term land use/land cover zoning and, ultimately, improving communities’ resilience to floods.