Development of Vulnerability Module for Inland Flood CAT Models in Central European Countries

Abstract

Flooding is a ubiquitous and frequent hazard in Central Europe in both low-lying river valleys and off the floodplains. Recent record-breaking inland floods, such as the Central European floods of 2013, are a stark reminder of the loss potential they hold. To estimate losses from inland flood events a comprehensive catastrophe (CAT) model was developed. The model framework incorporates an event-based fully-probabilistic hazard model and a vulnerability model. The vulnerability model estimates losses from on- and off- floodplain hazards by modelling damageability of structural and non-structural components of various type of buildings and their contents for various levels of flooding, and additional living expenses and business interruptions stemming from these damages. A component-based approach that considers the building structure, building use, fixtures and fittings, and services (i.e., mechanical, electrical, and plumbing) is used to estimate damage. Additionally, other features such as custom flood protection, first floor height and foundation types are implemented to reflect local construction and mitigation practices. Validation of the model was accomplished by comparing model results with published post event surveys by European research groups, focusing on the 2002 and the 2013 Central European Floods. The estimated damage ratios modeled compare well with published damage reports.