Current and future flood risk in the Danube region using an open loss modelling framework

Abstract

Climate informee planning of adaptation actions requires consistent and reliable information about future risks as well as appropropriate tools and services to support comprehensive flood risk assessment and management. The Future Danube Model is a multi-hazard and risk model suite to provide spatially consistent information on current and future extreme events and to quantify climate risks. The Future Danube Model is composed of exchangeable modules for climate input, hydrology, inundation, flood damage and risk. It is implemented within an open source platform, the OASIS Loss Modelling Framework. The application of the Future Danube Model is showcased for the assessment of current and future flood risk to residential buildings in the Danube region. Outputs from Global and Regional Climate Models for a reference period and three future climate periods are used to drive the model chain. Results show predominantly an increase in peak discharges across the Danube basin with exception for the Moldava and Tisza rivers. Future fluvial flood risk is shown to most likely increase in the future which is more pronounced for the high-end RCP84 scenario.