Integrating Maintenance Into Seismic Risk Assessment: A Comprehensive Approach to Infrastructure Resilience

Abstract

A severe seismic event can cause significant damage to infrastructure systems, leading to both direct and indirect severe consequences. Thus, a comprehensive risk management approach is essential for developing earthquake-resilient infrastructure. This study introduces an innovative approach to seismic risk assessment that incorporates maintenance considerations with seismic fragility curves. Our methodology distinctively quantifies the impact of maintenance conditions on seismic risk, providing insights into the dynamic evolution of risk associated with loose maintenance and accelerated deterioration. It suggests that the condition of infrastructure maintenance and its level of deterioration significantly influence seismic resilience. By integrating the Building Performance Indicator (BPI) with deterioration over time, the proposed approach assesses their combined effect on fragility curves to calculate the total risk over the infrastructure's lifecycle (TRLC – Total Risk over Life Cycle). We demonstrate this methodology through a case study of a low-voltage substation in Bik'at HaYarden, Israel. A Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to examine the particular conditions of the substation thoroughly. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to better understand how maintenance conditions influence the TRLC over time. Our findings reveal a statistically significant correlation between infrastructure performance and maintenance condition, and their subsequent impact on the TRLC. Notably, we found that loose maintenance conditions significantly increase the uncertainties in seismic risk. This research offers researchers, stakeholders, and decision-makers a novel and comprehensive view on the critical role of maintenance in managing and mitigating seismic risk.