Next generation exploration of UK future flood risks: High resolution climate, population and adaptation futures

Abstract

Under the Climate Change Act 2008 the UK Government is required to publish a Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) every five years. In response to this requirement future flood risk across the UK is explored here under alternative climate change, population growth and adaptation policies through to the 2080s using an innovative emulation model (the Future Flood Explorer). The analysis highlights significant increases in flood risk with Expected Annual Damages rising from £2bn today to £2.7-3.0bn in the 2080s (depending upon associated population growth) given a 2oC rise in Global Mean Surface Temperature, and rising to £3.5-3.9bn given a 4oC rise. The contribution of climate change, population and individual adaptation measures to future changes in flood risk are, for the first time, disaggregated, providing insight to the most significant drivers and important responses. The results highlight that to manage risk effectively under a 2 or 4oC future, an enhanced whole system approach to adaptation is needed with action required from a broad range of stakeholders, from national level down to individual households and businesses.