Evaluating past and future flood risk reduction in the Rhine river basin

Abstract

To evaluate the effects of implemented or planned flood risk management measures on risk and damage reduction, the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR) has developed a method and a specific tool named “ICPR FloRiAn (Flood Risk Analysis)”, running in a geographic information system. The instrument, available on demand, was applied by the ICPR to the Rhine but also by external users to other rivers in Europe. The tool uses flood hazard maps (like the so-called ICPR “Rhine Atlas”) and associated recurrence periods for an overall damage and risk assessment for four receptors: human health, environment, cultural heritage and economic activity. Calculations with FloRiAn by the ICPR show that the flood risk reduction target defined in the Action Plan on Floods in 1998 could be achieved with the measures already taken and those planned until 2030. Furthermore, the ICPR launched a new programme in 2020, entitled "Rhine 2040", which sets quantified risk reduction objectives until 2040. The focus of the programme is climate resilience. In the future, it is planned to use FloRiAn again to estimate the reduction of damages and risks caused by new measures.