Enhancing Risk Response Strategy Selection in Oil and Gas Construction Projects: A Fuzzy-Based Optimisation Approach

Abstract

Oil and Gas construction projects are faced with a multitude of risks and uncertainties that can profoundly impact project success, leading to cost overruns, schedule delays, and quality deficiencies. The effective implementation of risk management in this sector is vital to guaranteeing the successful execution and delivery of energy projects. Prior work has mainly focused on the risk identification and analysis phases of the risk management process. However, little attention has been given to the risk response phase and the selection of optimal response strategies. To fill this gap, this research seeks to develop a novel fuzzy-based optimisation model for selecting the most effective and efficient risk response strategy through the lens of Oil and Gas construction experts in Iraq. A mixed-method approach was implemented for data collection, analysis, and processing. This approach included: (1) a focus group session with 10 construction risk and safety experts in Iraq to identify the top five risks facing oil and gas construction projects in the country, outline three to four response strategies for each identified risk, and determine the key criteria for assessing the significance of these risks and for selecting the most appropriate response strategies; (2) a questionnaire survey administered to 100 construction experts to rank the significance of potential responses and their selection criteria based on a five-point Likert scale; (3) the application of fuzzy set theory to develop an optimisation model for risk response strategy selection. By providing a model for evaluating and selecting risk response strategies, decision-makers can gain deeper insights into the potential effectiveness of different approaches and their alignment with project objectives and constraints. This not only facilitates more informed decision-making but also enhances the overall risk governance framework within organisations operating in the Oil and Gas sector in Iraq.