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Sayers, Paul
Horrrit, M.
Kay, A. L.
Mauz, J.
Carr, S.
Under the Climate Change Act 2008 the UK Government is required to publish a Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) every five years. In response to this requirement future flood risk across the UK is explored here under alternative climate change, population growth and adaptation policies through to the 2080s using an innovative emulation model (the Future Flood Explorer). The analysis highlights significant increases in flood risk with Expected Annual Damages rising from £2bn today to £2.7-3.0bn in the 2080s (depending upon associated population growth) given a 2oC rise in Global Mean Surface Temperature, and rising to £3.5-3.9bn given a 4oC rise. The contribution of climate change, population and individual adaptation measures to future changes in flood risk are, for the first time, disaggregated, providing insight to the most significant drivers and important responses. The results highlight that to manage risk effectively under a 2 or 4oC future, an enhanced whole system approach to adaptation is needed with action required from a broad range of stakeholders, from national level down to individual households and businesses.
Next generation exploration of UK future flood risks: High resolution climate, population and adaptation futures
Kiadói változat
Open access
Full or partial reprint or use of the papers is encouraged, subject to due acknowledgement of the authors and its publication in these proceedings. The copyright of the research resides with the authors of the paper, with the FLOODrisk consortium.
Budapest University of Technology and Economics
Science and practice for an uncertain future
climate change
FLOODrisk 2020 - 4th European Conference on Flood Risk Management

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  • FLOODrisk2020 [93]
    4th European Conference on Flood Risk Management

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