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A method to assess the failure probabilities of river levees based on Elicitation, Calibration, Aggregation, and Debiasing of expert judgement (IeCAD)

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Link to refer to this document:
10.3311/FloodRisk2020.24.8
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  • FLOODrisk2020 [93]
Abstract
Studies carried out to analyse the risks of levees must include an evaluation of the probabilities of occurrence of different failure mechanisms (overflow, internal erosion, sliding and scouring). The probabilistic quantitative evaluation of these mechanisms remains difficult due to often insufficient input data, the natural variability of the materials, structures of very long length, the availability of mechanical models for certain failure mechanisms, and the random nature of the stresses involved. This makes it necessary to call for expert judgement to evaluate the probabilities of failure. However, expert judgement is generally associated with a qualitative and subjective dimension, and it comprises biases liable to impair the capacities of an expert to elicit their evaluations. This article proposes an approach to processing expert judgement that includes the modalities of Individual expert Elicitation, Calibration, Aggregation, and Debiasing of expert judgement (IeCAD). This IeCAD approach has been developed for river levees in view to correcting biased expert evaluations in the case of evaluating the failure probability of structures.
Title
A method to assess the failure probabilities of river levees based on Elicitation, Calibration, Aggregation, and Debiasing of expert judgement (IeCAD)
Author
Peyras, Laurent
Carvajal, Claudio
Diab, Youssef
Hathout, Michel
Vuillet, Marc
Date of issue
2021
Access level
Open access
Copyright owner
Full or partial reprint or use of the papers is encouraged, subject to due acknowledgement of the authors and its publication in these proceedings. The copyright of the research resides with the authors of the paper, with the FLOODrisk consortium.
Conference title
FLOODrisk 2020 - 4th European Conference on Flood Risk Management
Conference place
Online
Conference date
2021.06.22-2021.06.24
Language
en
Subject
subjective probability, expert judgement, debiasing
Version
Kiadói változat
Identifiers
DOI: 10.3311/FloodRisk2020.24.8
Title of the container document
Science and practice for an uncertain future
Document type
könyvfejezet
Document genre
Konferenciacikk

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Content by
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Atmire NV
DSpace software copyright © 2002-2016  DuraSpace
Contact Us | Send Feedback

Content by
DSpace software copyright © 2002-2016  DuraSpace
Contact Us | Send Feedback
Theme by 
Atmire NV