Operational river ice and water temperature forecasting on the Hungarian Danube reach

Abstract

The operation river ice and water temperature forecasting system of the Hungarian Hydrological Forecasting Service is based on a dual approach. The estimation of the energy balance of the Danube River is carried out as a physical approach that incorporates all available hydro-meteorological data and on the other hand a conceptual method is taken into consideration based on the relationship of air and stream temperatures. Both of the methods are results of continuous research and are fine-tuned for state-of-the-art performance on the Hungarian Danube reach. Superior calibration and validation results (0.27-0.68°C on a 10-day lead time for validation) were achieved compared to other published cases of recent years dealing with similar or larger rivers.