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Abstract
The operation river ice and water temperature forecasting system of the Hungarian Hydrological Forecasting Service is based on a dual approach. The estimation of the energy balance of the Danube River is carried out as a physical approach that incorporates all available hydro-meteorological data and on the other hand a conceptual method is taken into consideration based on the relationship of air and stream temperatures. Both of the methods are results of continuous research and are fine-tuned for state-of-the-art performance on the Hungarian Danube reach. Superior calibration and validation results (0.27-0.68°C on a 10-day lead time for validation) were achieved compared to other published cases of recent years dealing with similar or larger rivers.
